Empoli vs Fiorentina
2016/17 Italian Serie A.
Date: Sunday, 20 November 2016
Kick-Off: 14:00 UK,
Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli).
Empoli managed to move out of the bottom three two weeks ago after claiming a huge win over Pescara. While that was a big victory for them, it also looked like a bit of a freak result. Before winning that game 4-0 they hadn’t scored in eight games. To have scored once in nine matches, but have four goals in that time, seems pretty odd.
While it can be said that Pescara fell apart, just how Empoli managed to record a win that big is a puzzle. That big win isn’t exactly a sign that the struggling side are suddenly about to turn a corner. It’s very difficult to see any kind of repeat of that result here, especially since they’re up against a strong Fiorentina team.
The Fiorentina back-line have been strong this season even though their team has had a few shaky moments. They’ve conceded 11 in 11 games, which include meetings with much more talented sides than Empoli. They’ve managed to avoid defeat in nine of their last 10, while they have lost just two of the matches they’ve played this term which shows just how tough la Viola are to break down.
The visitors should continue that record against a side who have failed to score in four straight matches at home. Overall, both are quite low scoring this campaign. Just 25% of Empoli’s games have seen over 2.5 goals. Only 36% of the games Fiorentina have been involved in have seen more than two goals so far this term.
Fiorentina are likely to be even more goal shy without Nikola Kalinic up front, the former Blackburn striker has been a revelation in Serie A this season. Despite being a failure at Ewood Park, he’s la Viola’s top scorer this term with five goals. He’s unlikely to feature here, so the visitors are probably going to be a little light up front in this clash.
Being light up front is something Empoli know all too well, having failed to score in 83% of home matches. Both teams have scored in just 8% of their games in the league this term. Of the goals they have scored, 67% have come away from their own ground. They average out 0.33 goals per match in front of their own fans while they convert just 3% of their chances into goals at home.
Fiorentina shouldn’t have too much trouble at the back but that doesn’t mean they’re likely to kick on and win. Empoli have drawn back to back games 0-0 here and they could push for another shut out. Given their scoring woes, we’re backing against both sides finding the back of the net. No on the both teams to score market is our tip, which is priced at 4/5 with bet365.
Empoli vs Fiorentina: Head-to-head statistics
Empoli have a record of W4-D6-L10 in their past 20 home games against teams ranked higher than them in the table.
The Azzurri have scored just six goals so far – the worst in the division. And four of those came against Pescara.
Empoli and Fiorentina have met 18 times in the top flight.
The Viola have won eight times, whilst the Azzurri have won three times.
Empoli beat Fiorentina 2-0 last April; it marked their first win in their past 12 meetings (eight losses, three draws).
Fiorentina have lost just one out of their last ten Serie A games.
The Viola have a record of W9-D6-L5 in their past 20 road games versus sides below them in the table.
Empoli vs Fiorentina: Prediction
Both Fiorentina and Empoli have had their share of struggles this season. The Viola for a while had netted just six, then nearly doubled that in one game when they edged out Cagliari by firing in five. The same happened to Empoli; albeit they were much worse off prior to their 4-0 demolition of Pescara. Whilst seemingly encouraging, it’s a false dawn; after all, Pescara have yet to win an actual game on the pitch this season.
Despite Fiorentina’s struggles, the Viola are a gulf in class above their Tuscan rivals and should be able to get all three points out of this one. It won’t be necessarily a high-scoring affair; after all there have been under 2.5 goals in Fiorentina’s last three Serie A games, but the Viola should get the job done and move on to the next task.
Empoli vs Fiorentina: Betting tips
Both teams to score – NO at 4/5 at (1.80)
Under 2.5 goals at 4/6 (1.67)
Fiorentina – WIN at 11/10 (2.10).
