Atalanta vs Roma
2016/17 Italian Serie A.
Date: Sunday, 20 November 2016
Kick-Off: 14:00 UK,
Venue: Stadio Atleti Azzurri d’Italia (Bergamo).
There are just four points separating these two sides ahead of their meeting on Sunday. Few people would have expected them to be so close heading towards December. Atalanta have moved up to fifth after an inspired run of form. They’re defying expectations at the moment, and they’re showing no signs of slowing down.
Roma, meanwhile, are four points behind leaders Juventus ahead of this weekend. They could fall even further off the pace with a poor result in this trip to Bergamo. If they’re going to keep pace with the Italian champions then the visitors need to end Atalanta’s fantastic run. However, they could do with having a full squad at their disposal to do that.
Roma have been battling a defensive injury crisis for most of the season which is showing no signs of slowing up, they’re missing more bodies at the back ahead of this game. Manager Luciano Spalletti is rumoured to be filling in his full-back positions with two centre-halves here. He’s not trying to copy Tony Pulis, he just simply has little other choice.
Their defensive problems are pretty clear in their clean sheet record this term. They’ve conceded in 83% of matches in Serie A so far which leaves them wide open, right before a trip to a team who look unstoppable right now. That’s awful timing for the challengers for the Scudetto. Will Roma continue covering up for their defensive troubles, or will they fall further off Juventus?
The hosts have won six of their last seven in the league, picking up 19 points from those in total. That accounts for a huge chunk of their 22 point haul this term. The big question is, are they genuine challengers for Europe, or are they simply a flash in the pan? If you look at the great results they’re getting thenyou’d have to say they have potential for a great season. Just look at what Sassuolo managed to do last term.
Atalanta have kept three straight clean sheets, while they’ve shut out their opponents in five of their last six games. They’ll probably struggle to maintain that record this weekend, seeing as Roma have scored 2.42 goals per game so far. However, that number drops to 1.5 when you just take their away matches into account.
Atalanta have scored 1.83 goals a match at home themselves, while they’ve conceded just 1.08 per game. Roma really slipped up in their last away game, drawing 0-0 to struggling Empoli. We can see them dropping more points here, as Atalanta have got momentum behind them. Given how well the hosts are playing, it’s hard to believe they’re priced as well as 17/20 with bet365 on the double chance market. At that price they’re fantastic value to avoid defeat.
Atalanta vs Roma: Head-to-head statistics
Atalanta have gone seven games sans defeat – this is the best run of any team in Serie A so far.
La Dea have won 19 out of their 22 points in that period.
The Nerazzurri have only won one out of their last eight meetings with Roma (losing four times), but are unbeaten in their last three.
Both teams have found the back of the net in their last six meetings at Atalanta’s home ground.
Atalanta have kept clean sheets in four out of their last five Serie A games.
Roma have a record of W12-D7-L1 in their past 20 games against teams ranked below them in the table.
The Giallorossi have only kept one clean sheet on the road. That was during a 0-0 draw with Empoli.
Atalanta have a record of W6-D6-L8 in their past 20 home games against teams ranked above them in the table.
Atalanta vs Roma: Prediction
Atalanta may be four points behind Roma and have only won one out of their last eight meetings with the Giallorossi. However, the advantage is firmly in their favor here for them to pick up a long awaited win. As noted, they have drawn their past three match-ups against Roma. Furthermore, they are on a seven match unbeaten streak. They have kept clean sheets in four out of their last five games and have not lost at home in nearly two months.
By contrast, Roma’s injury woes could prove to be costly for them here, especially considering La Dea’s solid home and overall record. Still, the Giallorossi have a strong attack, which will put Atalanta’s clean sheet run under threat. All in all, Gasperini’s side should be able to cause Roma enough problems and should be able to pick up at least a point here.
Atalanta vs Roma: Betting tips
Double chance – Atalanta to WIN or DRAW at 17/20 (1.85)
Both teams to score – YES at 8/15 (1.53).
