Torino vs Chievo
2016/17 Italian Serie A.
Date: Saturday, 26 November 2016
Kick-Off: 17:00 UK,
Venue: Stadio Olimpico (Turin).
The opening game in Serie A this weekend is a clash between two opposites. Torino, high scorers at home, meet a goal shy Chievo team. Will this be a typical home game for Il Toro, featuring a lot of goals and another home win? Or can the away side keep things tight in Turin?
If the visitors were to win here, they’d be ended Torino’s unbeaten start at home. They’ve managed to win four and draw two here, that’s foundation of their push for a European spot. They sit just two points behind sixth placed Napoli heading into this weekend. Unfortunately, the hosts haven’t been able to tighten up at the back, despite the loan signing of Joe Hart.
The hosts concede far too many goals, and that could end up costing them down the line. They’ve kept just one home clean sheet this term. While that hasn’t stopped them from recording the sixth best home record in the Italian top flight, it could later down the line. So far, both teams have scored in 83% of their matches, while nine of their last 10 at home have seen over 2.5 goals.
Those statistics would normally have us backing over 2.5 and BTTS, which is 13/10 with bet365. However, Chievo are very much the opposite of the high scoring hosts. Their last four away games have all seen under 2.5 goals, while they’ve failed to find the net in seven of their last nine on the road. This is surely a huge chance for Hart to add another clean sheet?
Chievo convert just 4% of their chances into goals away from home, so this shouldn’t be a testing evening for Hart. However, it’s tough to back the hosts to defend well given their poor defensive record this term. Backing the total goals markets or BTTS seems risky.
One thing that does stand out is Torino’s scoring record. Not only are their games high scoring, their forward line is too. They create 18 chances per game at home, converting 15% of those. They average 2.83 goals per outing at home, while they’ve scored at least two in seven of their last eight in the league.
We can see them continuing that record here. The hosts are 8/11 with bet365 to score over 1.5 goals themselves. While we can’t rely on much from the away side, we think backing them to concede a couple away from home looks like good value.
Torino vs Chievo: Head-to-head statistics
Torino have won 12, drawn 6 and lost 2 of their last 20 home games against teams below them in the table.
Chievo have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 13 of their last 20 away games versus teams above them in the table.
The Granata have a record of W10-D8-L6 in their last 24 meetings with Chievo.
However, the Flying Donkeys beat them both home and away last season.
This same fixture last term ended as a 2-1 win for Chievo.
It marked the first time they managed to beat Torino at the Stadio Olimpico.
Torino vs Chievo: Prediction
Torino are still trying to find some consistency, but the Granata are in a much better place than Chievo right now. The Flying Donkeys are not only winless in their past five games, but are also on a two-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Torino have lost just one out of their last five games and will be encouraged by their hard-fought 2-0 win over a stubbornly defensive Crotone side.
The Granata, with 29 goals, are the second-highest scoring side in the division. As such, they will be expected to score here. All in all, with players like Belotti in good form, the hosts will prove to be too much for a visiting Chievo side who appear to have lost their way.
Torino vs Chievo: Betting tips
Torino – WIN at 13/20 (1.65).
Under 2.5 goals at 4/5 (1.80).
