Empoli vs AC Milan
2016/17 Italian Serie A.
Date: Saturday, 26 November 2016
Kick-Off: 19:45 UK,
Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani (Empoli).
Empoli crashed back down to earth last weekend losing 0-4 at home to Fiorentina having won by the same scoreline in their previous game. The loss leaves them down in 17th with 10 points but that's good enough for a 4 point margin of safety from the drop zone.
Empoli have won 1/10 games (1-4-5) scoring in just 1/10 games with all 4 draws 0-0 and all 5 defeats coming to nil. This team is poor going forward and their defence usually is in defence. Last weekend's loss is only the 2nd time in 6 where they have conceded 2 or more.
0 wins in 5 at home (0-2-3) with 0 goals scored since 12th September makes for depressing reading. Empoli need to find some goals before those below them in the table catch them up. The 4 goals conceded to Fiorentina is their first in 3 games with back to back clean sheets prior to the heavy defeat.
AC Milan
AC Milan were denied a Milan Derby victory in the 95th minute as Inter snatched a late 2-2 draw. The points leaves Milan on 26 points which is good enough for 3rd but a large 7 points behind leaders Juventus despite being them a few weeks ago.
I Rossoneri have won 5/7 games (5-1-1), netting 2 or more goals in 4/7 and in the last 2. At the back it's 1 clean sheet in 4 games but with Empoli the opposition it's hard to envisage much action in the Milan penalty area.
Away from home it's 3 wins from 5 (3-1-1), Milan have have scored 5 times in the last 3 netting 2 or more in 2/3. Again at the back 0/3 with a clean sheet is a concern but with them netting 2 goals frequently it's hard to see more than 1 Empoli goal if any at all.
Betting Verdict
I like Milan to get the win on Saturday night covering the -0.75 AH line and it's a shock to see them priced at odds against to do so. Empoli have it in them to hold sides but after conceding 4 last time out it's hard to see how they can beat Milan over 90 minutes.
Milan have won 5/7 and are finding the net a lot easier in recent weeks. Empoli haven't scored at home in over 2 months and whilst they drew with Roma (0-0) it wasn't due to a lack of efforts by the visitors.
The Rossoneri need to get back to winning ways after dropping 2 points last weekend and Empoli are almost perfect opposition. Inter (0-2), Fiorentina (0-4), Juventus (0-3) and Sampdoria (0-1) have all won here with Roma the exception. I rate this bet of Milan covering as greater than a 50% chance so to get odds against is high value and I'm backing the away win.
Empoli vs AC Milan: Head-to-head statistics
Empoli have a record of W4-D6-L10 in their last 20 home games against teams ranked above them in the table.
Milan’s record in their past 20 road game versus sides below them in the table is W9-D4-L7.
The Azzurri have a very frustrating record against Milan. To date, they have won just twice, whilst losing ten and drawing six times.
Both wins were 1-0 results, and both were at the Stadio San Siro (the most recent was in October 2007).
Empoli vs AC Milan: Prediction
It goes without saying that Empoli will face an uphill battle not just to beat their upcoming opponents but likely to stay afloat this season. They just can’t seem to catch a break. As for Milan, conceding late will have left a sour taste in their mouths – especially considering it was against bitter rivals Inter. They will be expected to pick themselves up to come out on top here.
However, considering that three out of the last five meetings between the two sides have ended up as draws, Empoli just may be able to throw a monkey wrench in Milan’s plans – but provided they can find the back of the net.
Empoli vs AC Milan: Betting tips
Milan – WIN at evens
Under 2.5 goals at 7/10 (1.70).
