This has the potential to be a really good game, although it is one that Sevilla will strongly be expected to win despite having suffered defeats in their last two home games. Valencia don’t pack anywhere near the same punch as Barcelona or Juventus though and defensively they still look very ordinary.
The case for at least one home goal here is an easy one to make. Valencia have kept just 1 clean sheet in 40 league matches now and are yet to do so this season. Even the arrival of Italian coach Cesare Prandelli hasn’t made much of an impact on their leaky defence and it’s just hard to see how they are going to keep a lively Sevilla side quiet here. The Andalusians have won 83% of their home games in La Liga and have the 2nd best home record in the division overall. They’ve only failed to score in one league match this season and should get plenty of opportunities to add to their tally here, with Valencia conceding 1.83 goals per game on average in La Liga this term.
However, an away goal does look likely too at some point in this game. Sevilla have let in 1.42 goals per game on average in La Liga which isn’t really good enough for a side with top four ambitions. They’ve conceded at least once in 75% of their matches and they are up against a Valencia side that has been scoring goals in almost every game, only for their defence to cost them much needed points. Both teams have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches and they’ve also scored at least once in 9 of their last 10 away games in La Liga.
Therefore, everything here seems to point towards there being goals in this. Valencia won’t simply come to Seville and put lots of men behind the ball because they really can’t trust their defence to hold tight for 90 minutes. Their best chance will be to try and cause a few problems of their own and that should lead to an open contest. Therefore, backing over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 10/11 looks to offer value here.
Match Preview:
The teams last played in April and Valencia won the game 2 – 1. Before that they played in November 2015 and Sevilla won the game 1 – 0.
Sevilla is third in the league with 24 points having won 7 games, drawn 3 and lost 2. They are two points below Barcelona.
Valencia is fifteenth in the league with 11 points having won 3 games, drawn 2 and lost 7. They are two points below Alaves.
Match Prediction:
A 1 – 1 draw is the most likely outcome with William Hill and Bet365 offering odds of 7/1 and 6/1 respectively.
Betting Odds:
William Hill Odds: 5/6 Sevilla to Win, 13/5 for a Draw and 16/5 Valencia to Win
Bet365 Odds: 8/11 Sevilla to Win, 13/5 for a Draw and 15/4 Valencia to Win
