Sevilla vs Maribor NK
UEFA Champions League 2017/18 – Group Stage
Date: Tuesday, 26th September 2017
Kick-off at 19:45 UK/ 20:45 CET
Venue: Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan (Sevilla).
Sevilla lost 2-0 at Atletico Madrid on Saturday, their first defeat of the season in nine matches (La Liga, Champions League qualifiers and group stage combined). They conceded two goals playing against Liverpool as well, two weeks ago, in their first group stage game, but they have kept four clean sheets in their last six games, two of those away from home. They are sitting third in LaLiga’s table, on 13 points from six matches, having only leaders Barcelona and Atletico Madrid in front of them. At Liverpool, they took the lead early in the game, went 2-1 down before halftime(!), but still managed to salvage at least a point, thanks to a Correa goal in the 73rd minute. Sevilla’s double chance (2.10) was my main tip then, “draw and both teams to score” (5.00) was my most daring tip, and things went… perfectly.
Maribor have already played 18 official matches this season, they have lost just one game, at Hapoel Beer Sheva, mid August, but it will take a small football miracle to avoid their second defeat of the season at Sanchez Pizjuan. A Bohar goal in the 85th minute earned them a point against Spartak Moscow at home two weeks ago, on the opening day of the Champions League group stage. Maribor’s double chance (2.00) was my tip then, explaining why I preferred it to Spartak’s win (at around 1.75). They are co-leaders in Slovenia’s championship on 24 points from 10 matches, sharing the top with Olimpija. Last Friday they suffered to beat Aluminij 3-2 away from home, going down twice (1-0 and 2-1), but scoring two goals in the last 15 minutes to win the game, despite the fact that they were left with ten men with the score at 2-2(!).
Sevilla vs Maribor: Head-to-head
The teams had previously met during the round of 32 of 2013/14 Europa League. Sevilla won 2-1 at home before earning a 2-2 draw away at Maribor.
Sevilla haven’t met another Slovenian club in UEFA competitions.
Maribor had met Sevilla’s domestic rivals Atletico Madrid and Villarreal in 1992 and 2006. They lost both their away trips to Spain back then, making it 3 losses in as many games in Spanish soil.
Sevilla vs Maribor: Predictions
Sevilla to win is a certainty for this fixture and this is why the bookmakers have odds close to zero for the home win. However, we find profitability in backing Sevilla for a first half win, priced at 1.55 odds.
Yet, a home win with clean sheet is the best option for this match as it is priced at 1.80 odds.
Meantime, Sevilla’s goal-scoring record at home against lower ranked teams is commendable. And therefore, Over 2.5 match goals with both teams not scoring is the value bet, however this comes with an ample risk.
Correct Score Prediction: 2-0 Sevilla for 6.50 odds.
