Atletico Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven
UEFA Champions League – Group D
Date: Tuesday, 1st November, 2016,
Kick-Off at 19:45 UK,
Venue: Vicente Calderon, Madrid.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid are top of Group D with 12 points from a possible 12. They have qualified for the last 16 and if they take 4 points from the next 2 games they will be assured of top spot to.
Simeone's side have scored in every group game (4/4) but only 2 or more in 1/4 with 2 of their wins coming by a 1-0 scoreline. 3/4 clean sheets show where their strengths are but having conceded 3 against Real Madrid in the derby this weekend there could be drop in performance when they host PSV.
At home it's 6/7 wins with the last team to draw here being PSV (0-0). Atletico have scored 2 or more in 4/7 but just 1/3 although the 2 times they failed to do so came against Bayern twice.
PSV
PSV are down in 3rd with just a single point to their name. They are fighting off Rostov for the Europa League place as neither side cannot qualify for the last 16.
PSV have scored in 3/4 games so far but they only side they failed to net against was Atletico at home in a 0-1 loss. They have since scored twice against Bayern despite losing both and also twice in Rostov. At the back no clean sheets in 4 is a worry conceding 2 or more in 3/4 games.
Away from home PSV drew at Rostov (2-2) and lost in Germany (4-1). PSV have netted in both games but they haven't netted in the last 3 encounters with Atletico with all 3 games coming in the last year.
Betting Verdict
Atletico Madrid have won 27/32 European matches at the Vicente Calderón with a record of 27-3-2 and a 4-1-1 record over Dutch clubs. Having defeated PSV in Holland I can't desert them at home even if they have already qualified.
The concern is how much the Real Madrid loss affected them. They haven't had to travel so there's no excuse to fail again. PSV are nowhere close to Real's level and the host should win comfortably.
I like Atletico to win to nil, in Europe they have shut out stronger sides than PSV and haven't conceded in the last 2 against them. 2 of the 3 have ended 0-0 but I think they find a winner in this one and rather than handicaps this looks the best way to go.
