Preview
In previous years, the small grass section of the tour was not a highly valued time for Diego Sebastian Schwartzman. His bad record on the surface might have something to do with his mindset, but he is one more match from making the second week at Wimbledon this year and he has surpassed the previous best of the second round at SW19.
He has produced two relatively straight forward wins to reach the Third Round and they both look quite impressive on paper. Matthew Ebden has enjoyed playing on grass throughout his career, while Dominik Koepfer has had a good appearance on the surface in 2019, but no one has threatened Schwartzman who has dropped just one set so far in the tournament.
But the Argentine is now facing Matteo Berrettini who continues to enjoy the star year on the tour which made him rise to 20th in the World Ranking. Increasing results have seen confidence flow from Berrettini and he headed to Wimbledon after winning the title in Stuttgart and reaching the Semi Final at Halle on grass for the past month.
These numbers really opened the eyes of the Italian from holding 98% of his serve played on grass in 2019 before arriving at Wimbledon. Even here, Berrettini only conceded three times and his strong serve opened the rest of the match because he also only lost a set in the first two rounds.
The side of the Berrettini game will be tested by Schwartzman who has a very good return and also a great game around that can make opponents under pressure. In the main events Schwartzman has broken 25% of the matches played back and he continues to press players at Wimbledon and this will be the key to the match.
If Berrettini is able to keep Schwartzman by hitting a big serve and releasing the first few tennis shots, I think he will be very hard to beat. Schwartzman's service has worked well so far in 2019 on its worst surface, but I think it's a vulnerable shot that Berrettini will be able to attack successfully if his own service works at an existing level.
It might take four sets, but I think Berrettini will still have enough to cover this sign with my feeling that his service is the difference maker on that day. Diego Sebastian Schwartzman is someone I respect very much for considering how much he extracted from himself, but I think this surface should benefit Berrettini and the Italian plays at a level high enough to enter the match.
Betting odds
Matteo Berrettini -> 1.30
Diego Sebastian Schwartzman -> 3.50
