Cagliari vs Napoli
2016/17 Italian Serie A.
Date: Sunday, 12 December 2016
Kick-Off: 11:30 UK,
Venue: Stadio Stadio Sant’Elia (Cagliari).
Napoli seem to be finding their groove again and are fresh from two morale-boosting results, but Cagliari have a strong home record.
The hosts enter the match on a decent run of form, with seven points in their last five matches. A 1-1 draw at Pescara last week left the Sardinians in 12th place with 20 points despite playing with 10 men for an hour. Coach Massimo Rastelli’s side have shown an ability to score goals this season, but boast the worst defensive record in Serie A with 32 conceded.
Marco Sau and Marco Borriello have been hugely important to that attack, with three and six goals respectively. Expect the pair to get the nod in attack, with Borriello acting in a familiar number nine role and Sau using his pace on the counter and to open space for his strike partner.
In midfield, Cagliari could start the seasoned pair of Daniele Dessena and Simone Padoin alongside 19-year-old starlet Nicolò Barella. Diego Farias could start just ahead of the trio and link play with Sau and Borriello. At the back, Mauricio Isla, Luca Ceppitelli, the ageless Bruno Alves and Fabio Pisacane will be hard-pressed to keep their first clean sheet of the season.
Napoli enter the match on the back of a 2-1 victory at Benfica on Tuesday evening that wrapped up first place in their Champions League group. Dries Mertens came off the bench and immediately changed the game in Lisbon, setting up Jose Callejon before adding a second himself. With Manolo Gabbiadini’s poor form, we could see the little Belgian get a starting spot.
Confidence is again running high in the Partenopei camp, a 3-0 thrashing of Inter last week seemingly breaking through the rough patch.
Piotr Zielinski and Amadou Diawara – the latter closely linked with Chelsea in November and played brilliantly against Benfica – could step into midfield alongside Marek Hamsik. The preferred defence of Elseid Hysaj, a newly-healthy Raul Albiol, Kalidou Koulibaly and Faouzi Ghoulam should start and will try to keep out Cagliari’s surprisingly successful attack.
For all the talk of Napoli’s struggles to score without Arkadiusz Milik and with Gabbiadini misfiring this season, the visitors are still joint-fourth-best in the league in attack. Expect them to torment Cagliari’s weak defence, maintaining possession with ease, surging forward on counter-attacks and even taking advantage of lapses in set-piece defending.
The saving grace for Massimo Rastelli’s side is the home form, picking up five victories here, a 2-2 draw with Roma and lone defeat to Fiorentina. Marco Capuano and Luca Bittante remain in doubt, while Nicola Murru, Joao Pedro and Artur Ionita are long-term absentees.
Cagliari, it should be noted, allow a league-worst 18.5 shots per game. Given Napoli’s relatively good recent form, the fluid and crafty nature of their front three and the steadying return of Albiol, Cagliari will be up against it to grab even a point at the Sant’Elia on Sunday.
Keep an eye on: Jose Callejon (Napoli) – With seven goals this season, the Spanish forward has emerged as top scorer in the absence of Arkadiusz Milik. Against a weak Cagliari defence and fresh off a goal in the Champions League, expect the Spaniard’s pace and eye for goal to be decisive.
Cagliari vs Napoli: Head-to-head statistics
Cagliari has a record of W4 D5 L11 in their past 20 home games against teams ranked above them in the table.
The Rossoblu have failed to win their last six meetings against Napoli (D3 L3).
Cagliari’s last win versus Napoli was in August 2009 (2-0).
Napoli has a record of W11 D4 L5 in their past 20 away games against teams ranked below them in the table.
Overall, Napoli are undefeated in their last 12 game versus Cagliari across all competitions.
The Rossoblu have netted at least two goals in their last eight home league games.
There have been over 2.5 goals in Napoli’s last three road games, and in Cagliari’s last eight home matches.
Cagliari vs Napoli: Prediction
Cagliari now will likely face a tricky task to contain a Napoli side who are starting to roar to life. Yet, although the Rossoblu have conceded in 11 straight games, their attack is pretty strong. In fact, they have scored only four fewer goals than the Partenopei. However, as noted, they have the worst defense in the division and that will cost them dearly here.
Given that there have been over 2.5 goals in eight of their last home games – and three of Napoli’s last road fixtures – expect goals from both ends here. The visitors, nonetheless, are a gulf in class above their hosts and should be able to depart with all three points in hand.
Cagliari vs Napoli: Betting tips
Over 2.5 goals at 4/7 (1.57)
Napoli (WIN) & both teams to score (YES) at 15/8 (2.88).
