1. FC Koln vs Hamburger SV
German Bundesliga 2016/17
Date: Sunday, 30th October 2016,
Kick-Off at 16:30 UK
Venue: Rhein Energie Stadion, Hamburg.
Only three teams (Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen) conceded fewer than Cologne last season and holding onto the same back four has evidently payed off over the start of their new Bundesliga campaign. Cologne have conceded the joint second fewest goals so far this season (6 goals), behind only league leaders Bayern Munich (4 goals). Cologne’s 2-1 defeat away to Hertha Berlin last weekend was their first defeat of the season, but the hosts bounced back quickly with a 2-1 win at home to Hoffenheim in the 2nd round of the DFB-Pokal just days later. Striker Anthony Modeste (pictured above) took his tally up 10 goals in ten appearances across all competitions, scoring one last weekend against Berlin and one during the week against Hoffenheim. He’s the Bundesliga’s top scorer and we fancy him to continue his top form here against the out-of-form Hamburg at a reasonable 11/10 to score anytime with bet365.
Hamburg took away their first point on their second attempt under former Hoffenheim coach Markus Gisdol, who was appointed in late September, with their impressive 0-0 draw away to Borussia Monchengladbach last Saturday. Hamburg’s hope of a quick turnaround, however, didn’t last long. Last Friday’s 3-0 defeat at home to Eintracht Frankfurt saw them back to losing ways and the frustration showed. Right-back Dennis Diekmeier is yet another Hamburg player who will be unavailable for this match due to suspension. Tuesday’s 4-0 win away to third tier side Hallescher FC in the 2nd round of the DFB-Pokal came as a relief after their failure to score in 6 consecutive Bundesliga matches – maybe Hamburg are destined to be relegated from the top flight for the first time in the club’s history!
Cologne are, for obvious reasons, the bookies’ favourite ahead of this match at 8/15 with bet365. While this price alone isn’t too tempting for an outright bet, we’d be confident in adding them into an accumulator, given Hamburg’s form alone – Hamburg have failed to score in 6 of their 8 Bundesliga matches so far this season (75%) and have lost three of their four matches on the road (D1 L3).
Though Cologne haven’t kept a clean sheet competitively since mid-September, conceding exactly one goal in each of their last 6 matches, the mentioned conditions are perfect for Cologne to return to their defensive ways here. Hamburg have lost to nil in 5 of their 8 matches so far this season (62.5%) and Cologne have won three of their four home matches so far this season, two of which were to nil (50%). As such, Cologne to win to nil at 6/4 with bet365 seems an extremely decent shout and offers much better odds to back the hosts. Following from Cologne’s average of two goals scored per match at home, a correct score bet of Cologne to win 2-0 at 6/1 with bet365 also seems a very likely outcome here.
FC Koln vs Hamburg: Head-to-Head Stats
Koln are unbeaten in the last four Bundesliga fixtures against Hamburg, with 2 wins and 2 draws.
However, Hamburg slightly lead the overall head-to-head record with 34 wins as against Koln’s 31 wins from their last 89 meetings, while 24 matches seeing draws.
While Koln’s 41 home matches saw them winning 24 times, along with 11 draws and 12 defeats.
FC Koln vs Hamburg: Prediction
Hamburg is arguably the worst attack in the league and have scored only 2 goals this season. Koln is a much improved side from last season and look solid in all departments. Koln also have a decent head-to-head record in recent meetings against Hamburg. And on current form, there is only one way this match will go. That’s a comfortable win for Koln at the full-time whistle.
FC Koln vs Hamburg: Betting Tips
Koln to win at 1.60 (3/5)
Koln to keep a clean sheet at 2.25 (5/4)
Full-Time Correct Score: 2-0 for Koln at 8.00 (7/1).
